Bailout uncertainty in a microfounded general equilibrium model of the financial system

This paper develops a micro-founded general equilibrium model of the financial system composed of ultimate borrowers, ultimate lenders and financial intermediaries. The model is used to investigate the impact of uncertainty about the likelihood of governmental bailouts on leverage, interest rates, the volume of defaults and the real economy. The distinction between risk and uncertainty is implemented by applying the multiple priors framework to beliefs about the probability of bailout.Results of the analysis include: (i) An unanticipated increase in bailout uncertainty raises interest rates, the volume of defaults in both the real and financial sectors and may lead to a total drying up of credit markets. (ii) Lower exante bailout uncertainty is conducive to higher leverage, which in turn raises moral hazard and makes the economy more vulnerable to expost increases in bailout uncertainty. (iii) Bailout uncertainty affects the likelihood of bubbles, the amplitude of booms and busts as well as the banking and the credit spreads. (iv) Higher bailout uncertainty is associated with higher returns’ variability in diversified portfolios and higher systemic risks, (v) Pre-crisis expansionary monetary policy reinforces those effects by inducing higher aggregate leverage levels. (vi) The larger the change in bailout uncertainty and the change in aversion to this uncertainty, the stronger the pre-crisis buildup and the deeper the ensuing crisis.A central policy implication of the analysis is that the vaguest is bailout policy prior to a crisis, the lower is the magnitude of investments destroyed or missed due to errors in evaluating bailout and other intervention policies. On the other hand, the clearer is bailout policy upon the eruption of a crisis, the smaller the contraction of credit and the destruction of investment activity.     

长江经济带生态保护效率与科技服务业发展效率时空关联分析

建立超效率DEA模型并运用视窗分析测算2010-2017年长江经济带11个省市生态保护效率与科技服务业发展效率，通过空间计量模型分析后者对前者的影响。结果表明：科研技术服务业效率对当地及周边地区的生态保护效率具有正向影响；科技资本服务业效率对当地生态保护效率具有正向影响，但对其周边地区有抑制效应；科技宣传服务业未对生态保护效率产生显著影响。据此，提出长江经济带通过提高科技服务业效率改进生态保护效率的对策。     

后路隧道施工重点及难点分析研究

本文主要以中石化中原建设工程有限公司承建的海西天然气管网二期工程-后路隧道工程为例,分析研究大坡度、小断面隧道施工中的控制重点、难点及相关处理措施,并通过对隧道开挖的重点环节进行分析研究来确定相应的应对措施,旨在为今后类似情况的隧道施工提供科学依据。     

线下路基及框构基坑开挖与防护技术

根据具体工程概况,文章分析了施工方案选择,对旧路基纵向边坡的稳定性进行了分析,并提出了线下路基土开挖与防护措施。     

中国不同省份金融结构转变与产业结构升级关系的实证研究

随着我国社会主义市场经济改革的不断深入，现有金融结构已不能适应经济发展。本文从金融结构调整的角度出发，对中国较发达地区，欠发达地区以及基于全国的数据进行面板回归。通过对实证结果的分析，得出金融结构调整对产业结构调整并不是简单线性关系的结论，金融结构调整应有合理的范围，当金融结构在其范围内变化时，能够促进经济的增长，当金融结构的调整超过合理范围时，金融功能的负作用会逐渐增强，当负作用积累到一定程度，会对经济的发展起到阻碍作用，我国各省份应根据自己的实际发展情况和自然禀赋，选择合适的金融结构和经济发展模式。     

The negative spillover effect of food crises on restaurant firms: Did Jack in the Box really recover from an E. coli scare?

Despite the enormous impact of food crises on restaurants, limited understanding of their long-term impacts and associated factors has undermined crisis managers’ ability to handle crisis situations effectively. This article investigated the long-term impact of food crises on the financial performance of restaurant firms and identified the factors that influenced this impact. This explanatory study examined the case of Jack in the Box, whose 1993 Escherichia coli scare was the first and largest restaurant-associated food crisis in modern times. An event study method was used to uncover stock price movements of Jack in the Box, in conjunction with 73 unrelated food crises that occurred from 1994 to 2010. Stock prices of Jack in the Box exhibited significantly negative responses to other firms’ food crises, moreover, the negative spillover effect was stronger if the crisis occurred closer in time, was similar in nature, and was accompanied with no recall execution. These findings shed light on the long-term financial impact of food crises and offer insights for crisis managers to develop more effective crisis management strategies.     

地方人大重大事项决定权工作机制探索

党的十八大对坚持和完善人民代表大会制度提出了新的更高要求,十八届三中全会作出的《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》,特别明确了人大重大事项决定权。鉴于目前地方人大及其常委会的决定权基本虚置的状况,本文探讨了地方人大重大事项决定权的涵义及工作机制,以期健全人大讨论、决定重大事项制度,推进人民代表大会制度理论和实践创新。     

收益率差异视角下股票流动性与资本结构关系的再检验

本文在股票收益率差异视角下，选择2000年1月到2015年12月期间中国沪、深市场307家上市公司数据，采用单方程估计法和联立方程组系统估计法研究我国上市公司股票流动性与资本结构的相互影响；并分别从股权分置改革、股权再融资、牛熊市行情三个方面对二者关系的变化与差异进行深入分析。结果表明：股票流动性与资本结构之间存在显著的负向关系，并且随着股票收益率水平的提高，负向影响越来越明显；股权分置改革后、满足再融资资格的上市公司以及牛市行情下两者的相互影响更显著。     

县域经济增长中结构红利的测度及决定 ——基于中国1 820个县面板数据的实证分析

产业结构升级是经济增长的源泉之一。本文基于中国1 820个县的面板数据，采用Translog生产函数估计要素弹性，进而测度县域经济增长中的结构红利，同时构建空间误差计量模型对结构红利的影响因素进行检验。研究结果表明2002-2010年间，结构红利占县域GDP总值的444%，对县域GDP增长的贡献达到了2435%。劳均资本、劳均土地等变量对结构红利有显著影响，本文还发现，在东部、中部、西部三个地区，财政支出占GDP的比重对结构红利都有显著的负向影响。